Chinese Tourism Slump Hits Japan as Taiwan Dispute Redirects Holiday Travel to South Korea

Chinese Arrivals Fall While Japan Keeps Drawing Visitors

Japan received 330,400 visitors from mainland China in December 2025, a fall of 45 percent from a year earlier, according to the Japan National Tourism Organisation (JNTO). Yet total arrivals reached nearly 3.62 million, up 3.7 percent. Those two figures capture the uneven effects of a diplomatic crisis: Japan continues to attract tourists, while businesses built around Chinese customers face a sudden loss of trade.

The next test comes during the Lunar New Year holiday, which begins on February 15. On January 26, China's foreign ministry and diplomatic missions advised Chinese citizens to avoid Japan during the holiday, citing security concerns and a claimed increase in crimes targeting Chinese nationals.

The dispute began after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made remarks about Taiwan in parliament on November 7, 2025. Beijing's subsequent travel warnings have affected tour bookings, airline schedules, hotel occupancy and shopping. South Korea, meanwhile, is preparing for a sharp increase in Chinese holiday visitors.

Chinese travelers have historically represented roughly 23.7 percent of Japan's inbound visitors and an even larger share of their spending, reflecting demand for luxury goods and expensive experiences. Losing these customers can hurt retailers and hotels even when tourists from other countries fill some of the gap.

Visitors from elsewhere in Asia, Europe and the United States have helped sustain Japan's December total. The weak yen makes accommodation, shopping and other purchases more affordable for people exchanging foreign currencies. As of February 2, however, that resilience is distributed unevenly: some businesses report severe cancellations, while others say their rooms are filling with different customers.

The Taiwan Remarks Behind the Dispute

Takaichi, Japan's first female prime minister, suggested on November 7 that a Chinese military attack on Taiwan could constitute a situation threatening Japan's survival. Such a determination could potentially trigger a response by Japan's Self Defense Forces.

Her remarks departed from Japan's traditional strategic ambiguity over Taiwan. In simple terms, that approach leaves uncertain exactly how Japan would respond to a conflict, rather than setting out a public commitment in advance. Takaichi later described her comments as hypothetical and consistent with existing security legislation.

China's Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong summoned Japan's ambassador to Beijing, the first such summons in more than two years. Chinese officials and state media condemned the remarks as the first explicit threat of force against China in 80 years. Some commentators compared them with Japanese militarism in the 1930s and 1940s.

China's foreign ministry issued its first travel advisory on November 14, urging citizens to avoid Japan. The Chinese embassy in Tokyo later repeated the warning, referring to reports of increasing xenophobic sentiment and attacks against Chinese nationals.

The Chinese Embassy in Japan directly connected its warning to the Japanese leadership's statements about Taiwan:

Recently, Japanese leaders have openly made explicit provocative remarks regarding Taiwan, severely worsening the atmosphere for exchanges between Chinese and Japanese people and posing significant risks to the personal and life safety of Chinese citizens in Japan.

The embassy's wording placed the diplomatic dispute at the center of its explanation for the travel warning. Beijing presented the advisory as protection for its citizens, while the timing and language also connected the tourism pressure to Japan's position on Taiwan.

How the Crisis Developed

The dispute has moved through several stages, from a parliamentary statement to travel warnings and then cancellations. By late January, the approaching holiday had made the consequences more urgent for airlines, hotels and travelers.

• November 7, 2025: Takaichi told parliament that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could create a situation threatening Japan's survival.
• November 14, 2025: China's foreign ministry urged citizens to avoid Japan.
• November 2025: Chinese overnight stays at major Kyoto hotels fell 12.1 percent from a year earlier.
• December 2025: Mainland Chinese arrivals in Japan fell 45 percent to 330,400, while total international arrivals rose 3.7 percent to nearly 3.62 million.
• January 26, 2026: Chinese authorities recommended avoiding Japan during the Lunar New Year holiday.
• January 29, 2026: A robbery in Tokyo's Ueno district targeted a group including Chinese nationals. An attempted robbery at Haneda Airport followed hours later.
• February 15, 2026: The holiday period begins, with South Korea expecting a substantial increase in mainland Chinese visitors.

China's advisory remains a recommendation rather than a binding prohibition. Tomoko Ako, a University of Tokyo professor specializing in China studies, said a further deterioration in relations could lead Beijing to require travel agencies to stop tours entirely or to reduce flight frequencies between the countries.

Tour Cancellations Spread to Airlines

RCC Inc., a travel agency based in Tokyo that specializes in Chinese visitors, lost approximately 30 group tour bookings in a single day after the November advisory. The disruption followed a period of growth: during 2025, around 2,000 to 3,000 Chinese travelers a month had used its services, compared with approximately 800 a month in 2024.

Spring Japan, a budget airline flying between Narita International Airport and seven Chinese destinations, received more than 200 inquiries about cancellations within days of the warning. Air China, China Eastern and China Southern began allowing free cancellations for Japan flights through late October, making it easier for passengers to abandon planned trips.

Sichuan Airlines canceled its planned route between Chengdu and Sapporo until at least March 2026. For destinations relying on visitors arriving directly from China, the loss of a route also removes a convenient way for prospective customers to reach them.

Cirium flight data show scheduled services from China to Japan falling 48 percent to just above 800 for the Lunar New Year period. Services between mainland China and South Korea rose nearly 25 percent to more than 1,330.

The contrasting schedules show how airlines are responding to the change in travel demand. Japan faces fewer scheduled connections during a traditionally busy season for Chinese outbound travel, while South Korea has more capacity to receive visitors.

Hotels and Department Stores Bear the Cost

Osaka, a major tourism center in the Kansai region, has experienced extensive hotel cancellations. The Osaka Convention and Tourism Bureau confirmed that 50 to 70 percent of Chinese bookings at roughly 20 hotels had been canceled through the end of December.

Kyoto's major hotels recorded a 12.1 percent decline from a year earlier in overnight stays by Chinese visitors during November. It was their first such decline since the COVID-19 pandemic. The figures show the pressure on destinations that have long attracted Chinese group tours.

Four major Japanese department store operators reported that duty free sales to foreign visitors fell between 10 percent and 20 percent in December compared with the previous year. Duty free shopping allows eligible visitors to make purchases without paying certain local taxes, making it an important part of tourist retail spending.

Investors also reacted after the November advisory. Shares in Isetan Mitsukoshi fell 10.7 percent, Oriental Land dropped 5.9 percent, and Japan Airlines declined 4.4 percent. The losses reflected concern across retail, attractions and aviation, rather than within hotels alone.

Japan's rising total visitor count therefore tells only part of the economic story. A replacement visitor may choose different accommodation, spend money in different places or buy fewer luxury goods. Shops and hotels serving Chinese customers can lose revenue even as arrivals from other markets increase.

South Korea Gains the Holiday Business

China Trading Desk, a market researcher, projects that 230,000 to 250,000 mainland Chinese visitors will travel to South Korea during the nine day Lunar New Year holiday starting February 15. That would represent an increase of up to 52 percent from the previous year.

South Korea is expected to overtake Japan as the leading destination for Chinese travelers during the Spring Festival period for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. Chinese arrivals in Japan during the same holiday are projected to fall 60 percent.

Seoul has sought to attract Chinese visitors by extending visa free entry for tour groups through June and easing visa requirements for individual travelers. The weak South Korean won also offers shopping advantages similar to those provided by Japan's weak yen, without the same diplomatic friction.

South Korean popular culture is another attraction, particularly for younger travelers. Seoul, Busan and Jeju Island draw visitors interested in beauty treatments, fashion and entertainment experiences.

Tony Medina, who runs Seoul Medical Guide, a business connecting tourists with skincare and plastic surgery clinics, reported several hundred inquiries from mainland Chinese clients for the holiday. He had received only a handful for the same period a year earlier.

The latest China Trading Desk survey places Singapore, Malaysia and South Korea at the front of Chinese travelers' preferred destinations, with regional Asian trips continuing to dominate. Japan has fallen from second place to seventh, showing how quickly political signals can affect destination choices.

Lisa Zhang, a 20 year old college student from Guangxi province, had planned to ski in Japan but switched to South Korea because of its cheaper currency and geopolitical tensions. She said her parents would worry about her safety in Japan because of perceived sentiment against China. Her decision brings together the financial, political and family concerns influencing travel plans.

Robberies Become Part of the Safety Argument

China's security justification has included specific crimes as well as broader claims about harassment and xenophobic sentiment. On January 29, attackers used pepper spray against a group including Chinese nationals in Tokyo's Ueno district and stole approximately 420 million yen, around $2.7 million.

Hours later, attackers at Haneda Airport targeted a Japanese man carrying 190 million yen in a suitcase. They failed to escape with the money. The apparent coordination of the incidents raised concern about organized crime targeting people transporting large sums of cash.

The Chinese Embassy in Japan cited the incidents alongside its broader claims of increasing hostility and harassment directed at Chinese citizens. Japanese officials disputed those descriptions, pointing to Japan's relatively low crime rates compared with other major cities around the world.

The January 29 robberies occurred three days after the renewed holiday advisory. They became part of the continuing safety argument, while the warnings themselves had already been issued against the backdrop of the Taiwan dispute.

The political reading of the warnings is that a security explanation provides cover for economic pressure on Japan. Beijing maintains that it is protecting citizens. Its own statement linking risks to Japanese leaders' Taiwan remarks also makes the diplomatic connection explicit.

Fewer Chinese Groups, Different Crowds

Residents in Kyoto, Tokyo's Asakusa district and Hiroshima's Miyajima island have complained about congestion, noise and environmental damage associated with heavy tourism. For some residents and businesses, the reduction in Chinese tour groups offers relief even as it creates financial problems elsewhere.

Miyajima, one of Japan's best known sightseeing destinations, illustrates a change in visitor mix. Local cafe owners reported that tourist numbers remained stable, but that customers were mainly European, North American and Taiwanese, with mainland Chinese visitors almost absent.

One cafe owner said large groups from China had sometimes been difficult to accommodate. A move toward individual travelers from Western countries could make serving visitors easier and improve the experience for customers and businesses.

Kai Iwasaki, a rickshaw driver in Asakusa, said Chinese customers had once accounted for roughly 30 percent of his business. Increased demand from Europe, America and Southeast Asia has offset their disappearance. Hotel managers in Tokyo likewise reported that other customers were quickly filling rooms left vacant by Chinese cancellations.

These experiences differ from the heavy cancellation rates reported at Osaka hotels. The consequences depend on the business, its location and how much it relies on a particular market. Reduced crowding can benefit some places while lost bookings damage others.

Businesses Seek a Wider Customer Base

JNTO figures show that China remained Japan's largest source of inbound visitors through October 2025, accounting for roughly 23 percent. That was down from about 30 percent in 2019, a decline of approximately seven percentage points in its share.

October also brought record visitor numbers from 13 countries and regions, including South Korea, Taiwan and the United States. Growth across these markets helps explain why Japan can lose Chinese arrivals while retaining a strong total.

Japanese businesses are accelerating efforts to manage their exposure to China by marketing to Europe, the United States, Australia and Southeast Asia. The aim is to spread customers across more markets so that a disruption in one country causes less damage.

Fujita Kanko, which operates Hotel Chinzanso and the Washington Hotel chain, reported no substantial impact from the advisory. The company attributed its resilience to broader marketing beyond China since the pandemic. The Imperial Hotel Tokyo also reported only minor banquet cancellations.

Hokkaido experienced temporary disruption to group tours but remained popular with individual travelers from other markets. Hotels in Sapporo's Susukino district reported approximately 20 nights of Chinese bookings canceled, while visitors from other Asian countries and Western nations continued to fill rooms.

The change supports the Japanese government's broader goal of reducing dependence on any single visitor market. For businesses, the practical challenge is to find customers who can replace both the bookings and the spending that have been lost.

The Potential Losses and Recovery Period

Takahide Kiuchi, an economist at Nomura Research Institute, estimates that China's travel alert could cause 2.2 trillion yen in economic damage, approximately $14 billion, if sustained. The immediate effect has been cushioned by the weak yen, which continues to attract travelers watching their budgets from other markets.

A separate estimate puts lost tourist revenue at $9.59 billion if Beijing maintains the advisory through 2026, equivalent to roughly 0.29 percent of Japan's gross domestic product. GDP measures the value of goods and services produced in an economy. The $9.59 billion figure concerns tourism revenue, while Kiuchi's $14 billion estimate describes economic damage more broadly.

Kotaro Toriumi, an aviation and travel analyst, predicts that the disruption will extend into spring, with a full recovery unlikely for at least six months to a year. No date has been given for lifting the advisory.

Toriumi also suggests that some urban areas could benefit from less pressure caused by excessive tourism. Japanese travelers who had been priced out or discouraged by crowds might return, providing another possible source of demand for businesses.

Japan faces a difficult balance. A broader mix of visitors can keep rooms occupied and relieve pressure at busy attractions, but businesses dependent on Chinese shopping and organized tours face a longer adjustment. The holiday beginning February 15, the canceled Chengdu to Sapporo service through at least March, and South Korea's visa policy through June provide the next practical markers for travel planning.

The crisis shows how a diplomatic dispute can move quickly into everyday commerce. A warning issued in Beijing changes a family's destination, an airline's schedule, a hotel's bookings and a department store's sales. Japan's ability to attract other visitors is cushioning that chain of losses, without distributing the relief equally.

Key Points

• Mainland Chinese arrivals in Japan fell 45 percent to 330,400 in December 2025, while total arrivals rose 3.7 percent to nearly 3.62 million.
• China issued travel warnings after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's November 7 remarks about a possible Taiwan conflict and renewed its holiday advice on January 26.
• The advisory is a recommendation, not a binding travel prohibition.
• South Korea expects 230,000 to 250,000 mainland Chinese visitors during the holiday beginning February 15, an increase of up to 52 percent.
• Osaka hotels reported cancellations of 50 to 70 percent of Chinese bookings, while major department stores recorded December duty free sales declines of 10 to 20 percent.
• Potential losses include an estimated $9.59 billion in tourism revenue through 2026 and Kiuchi's broader estimate of approximately $14 billion in economic damage if the alert persists.
• Travelers from other markets are supporting Japan's tourism totals, while some residents and businesses welcome relief from crowded attractions.