Japan Turns Toward More Rice Production as Prices and Food Security Fears Mount

A Staple Food Forces a Change in Policy

A five-kilogram bag of rice cost ¥4,268, about $30, in Japan in May 2025, nearly double its price a year earlier. By August, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba had announced a reversal in agricultural policy: the government would encourage farmers to grow more rice after decades of measures designed to hold production down.

The change comes as Japan confronts shortages, soaring prices and growing concern about the security of its food supply. Extreme heat, water shortages, stronger demand from foreign visitors and panic buying have put pressure on a market long managed to prevent excess production. For households, the consequences have been immediate: a food central to everyday meals has become much more expensive.

The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, known as MAFF, acknowledged that it had underestimated demand and pledged to improve forecasting and supply management. The new direction includes bringing abandoned farmland back into use, helping farms become more productive and expanding sales at home and abroad.

Japan now faces a difficult balancing act. More rice could make shopping cheaper and supplies more reliable. Prices that fall too far, however, could leave farmers unable to cover their costs, encouraging more of them to stop growing the crop. As of August 9, 2025, the policy direction has changed, while several measures, including a possible change in how farmers receive financial support, remain under consideration.

Why Japan Paid Farmers to Grow Less

Japan tightly controlled rice production for much of the postwar era. Beginning in the 1970s, the policy known as gentan paid farmers to leave paddy fields fallow or plant other crops. A fallow field is land temporarily left without a crop. The aim was to prevent an oversupply of rice and keep prices stable.

Small family farms and rural livelihoods were central to this approach. The policy sought to protect farmers while avoiding the food shortages that had haunted Japan after World War II. Keeping rice cultivation financially viable was closely connected to maintaining the country's ability to feed itself.

Rice consumption nevertheless declined as Japan's population changed and diets shifted. Restricting production became increasingly controversial as the government continued supporting a system designed around falling demand. By 2024, Japan's rice production was 40% below its 1961 level, even as global rice output had grown sharply.

The acreage reduction policy formally ended in 2018, but subsidies and other incentives continued to discourage rice cultivation. Nearly 40% of paddy fields were left unused. Ending the formal policy therefore left financial incentives that still shaped what farmers chose to plant.

Agricultural cooperatives and small farmers benefited from this arrangement, while consumers and taxpayers carried costs through higher prices and public support. When supplies tightened, the same system offered limited flexibility to produce or bring in more rice quickly.

Import Protection Narrowed the Options

Japan's rice market is among the most protected in the world, with tariffs on imported rice reaching as high as 778%. A tariff is a tax on goods entering a country. Such charges make imported products more expensive and help domestic producers compete.

Protection from cheaper foreign rice supported Japanese growers, but it also restricted the market's ability to respond when domestic supplies came under pressure. Imported rice, when allowed, was typically directed toward food processing or animal feed rather than direct consumption.

Those arrangements mattered during the shortage. Japan relied heavily on its own harvest for rice eaten at home and in restaurants, while imports offered a limited alternative. The government's reluctance to increase imports, together with its slow release of emergency rice reserves, made the supply problem worse.

The policy reversal addresses domestic production directly. Expanding cultivation could provide a larger supply cushion, but the benefits depend on farmers having the land, workers and financial resources to grow more.

How Weather and Demand Squeezed Supplies

Record heat waves and water shortages damaged rice crops during the crisis of 2024 and 2025, reducing both quality and yield. Yield means the amount harvested from a given area of land. When it falls, farmers can cultivate the same area yet have less rice available to sell.

Foreign tourism increased demand at the same time. Japan received more than 30 million overseas visitors in 2024, adding to purchases of rice dishes. Panic buying, partly driven by fears of an earthquake, placed further pressure on supplies as shoppers sought to secure food for their households.

Supermarket shelves emptied, and restaurants raised prices or reduced portions. The May 2025 price of ¥4,268 for five kilograms translated into a particularly heavy burden for households with lower incomes, whose budgets had less room to absorb the increase.

The crisis brought together a sudden supply squeeze and stronger demand in a market accustomed to managing a gradual decline in consumption. A policy built around avoiding excess rice struggled when Japan needed more of it.

The Dates Behind the Reversal

Japan's August announcement followed decades of production controls and a more recent series of pressures on food supply. The main developments show how a policy designed to manage surplus came under strain:

• 1961: The production level used for comparison with 2024, when Japan's rice output was 40% lower.
• The 1970s: Japan began gentan, paying farmers to leave paddy fields fallow or switch crops.
• 2018: The acreage reduction policy officially ended, although subsidies and incentives continued to discourage rice cultivation.
• 2023: Japan's food self-sufficiency stood at 38% when measured by calories. Extreme heat in 2023 and 2024 added to concern about agricultural resilience.
• 2024: More than 30 million foreign visitors increased demand for rice dishes as supplies came under pressure.
• May 2025: A five-kilogram bag of rice cost ¥4,268, about $30, nearly twice its price a year earlier.
• August 2025: Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced that Japan would support greater rice production.

The change moves government policy toward making more rice available, while keeping farmer incomes and the risk of future surpluses in view.

What Farmers Would Be Encouraged to Do

Ishiba's new approach calls for using abandoned farmland, increasing productivity and finding more buyers. Bringing idle paddy fields back into cultivation would increase the land available for rice and help prevent further abandonment.

Support would also help farmers combine small plots into larger operations. Working across larger areas can make machinery and labor easier to organize, an important consideration for farms facing limited resources and an aging workforce.

The government plans to encourage smart agriculture, including drones and precision farming. Precision farming uses technology to target work and resources more accurately across a field. The aim is to improve yields while reducing the labor needed to produce a crop.

Expanding exports is another part of the approach. With domestic rice consumption declining over time, selling more abroad could provide an outlet for higher production. Japan is looking toward the European Union's use of international sales to help manage surpluses.

MAFF's pledge to improve demand forecasts is equally central. Farmers make planting decisions before the harvest reaches shops. Better estimates of how much rice households, restaurants and other buyers will need would help align those decisions with the market.

Cheaper Rice and Secure Farm Incomes

Consumers would benefit from an increase in supply that brought prices down. Farmers, however, face higher fertilizer and fuel costs, which have squeezed profit margins. A lower selling price can become a serious problem when the cost of producing the crop remains high.

The government is considering moving from price supports toward direct payments to farmers, drawing on practices in the United States and European Union. Price support seeks to sustain the price a farmer receives. A direct payment instead provides financial assistance to the farmer, allowing support for income without relying on expensive rice.

Such a change would seek to keep farms financially stable while allowing market prices to respond to supply and demand. The government wants growers to remain willing to produce rice without maintaining prices that place excessive pressure on household budgets.

Surpluses present another risk. If production rises rapidly while domestic consumption keeps declining, Japan will need export opportunities, storage and measures to stabilize the market. Otherwise, farmers could face cycles of plentiful harvests, falling prices and subsequent reductions in production.

Why Rice Security Is Only Part of Food Security

Japan was nearly 100% self-sufficient in rice, yet its food self-sufficiency across the diet was just 38% on a calorie basis in 2023. Measuring by calories means counting how much of the energy in the country's food comes from domestic production rather than imports.

Rice and the wider food supply therefore present different challenges. Japan grows almost all the rice it needs, but imports about 80% of its wheat and 90% of its soybeans. A strong domestic rice sector exists alongside substantial dependence on overseas supplies of other staples.

The Russia-Ukraine war illustrated the risks of international disruption for countries relying on food imports. At home, the rice shortage showed how weather and unexpected demand can strain even a crop produced largely within national borders.

The response discussed in the policy debate includes diversifying import sources, investing in crop varieties better able to withstand climate pressures and modernizing farming practices. Food security means having a reliable supply people can afford, requiring attention to both domestic production and trade.

Heat, Aging Farmers and the Limits of Expansion

Extreme heat in 2023 and 2024 exposed continuing risks to harvests, and such events are expected to become more frequent. Increasing the planted area will have to be accompanied by efforts to keep crops productive under difficult growing conditions.

Japan's preference for traditional rice varieties complicates that task. Those varieties are valued for their taste but are less resilient to heat and pests. Moving toward varieties better suited to a changing climate requires balancing the qualities consumers want with the conditions farmers face.

Japan's farming population is also aging and shrinking. Just over 1% of the population is now engaged in agriculture, the total area of farmland is decreasing, and many small growers lack the resources to invest in technology or expand.

Larger corporate farms are becoming more common and are better placed to adopt advanced equipment and increase production at scale. The reform plan aims to support both traditional farms and modern farming enterprises, with stronger management skills and better farming practices forming part of that effort.

Drones, precision farming and larger plots offer ways to reduce labor needs, but turning abandoned fields into productive land still requires people and investment. The policy's practical test will be whether farms can expand while remaining financially viable.

Rice Prices Become a Political Test

The Liberal Democratic Party, which has governed Japan for most of the postwar period, has long depended on support from rural communities and small farmers. Producer protection has been a cornerstone of that relationship, connecting rice policy to political power.

Public anger over shortages and high prices has placed that approach under pressure. Many people now view the old policies as outdated and responsible for the crisis. The government's slow response and failure to anticipate demand, particularly from tourism, have drawn criticism.

An agriculture minister resigned after making an insensitive remark about rice, underscoring the political stakes. An unnamed expert commenting on the crisis connected the current dispute with rice's longstanding place in Japanese public life:

Rice, central to Japanese culture and cuisine, has historically triggered political upheaval.

The 1918 rice riots are part of that history. Rice carries cultural and political meaning as well as nutritional value, making sudden shortages and price increases especially sensitive.

With elections looming and approval ratings at risk, the decision to embrace reform reflects political pressure alongside economic necessity. An editorial cited in the debate criticized the ministry's priorities and response:

The ministry, which sought to prevent a drop in prices, may have been too considerate of producers. It will have to reflect on its failure to incorporate the consumer's perspective, and its slowness in taking action.

The central demand behind that criticism is concrete: policy must keep farms operating while also keeping rice available and affordable for the people who buy it.

What Other Countries Can Learn

Japan's experience reflects a problem faced beyond its borders: governments want to protect farmers while ensuring that households can obtain affordable food. Production controls can support prices, yet become difficult to adjust when weather damages harvests or demand changes unexpectedly.

The new approach brings those competing needs together through greater production, possible direct payments, technology and exports. Its success depends on coordinating them. More rice needs buyers, lower prices need viable farms, and renewed cultivation needs a workforce able to sustain it.

Canada is among the agricultural exporters with possible opportunities for cooperation. It already supplies a significant share of Japan's wheat and soybean imports. Collaboration on agricultural technology, climate adaptation and trade could help both countries build more sustainable food systems.

Japan's reversal marks recognition that rigid protectionism has become harder to sustain amid climate pressures and global market uncertainty. The immediate task is to restore reliable rice supplies without weakening the farms needed to produce future harvests.

Key Points

• Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced in August 2025 that Japan would encourage greater rice production after decades of restrictions and discouraging incentives.
• A five-kilogram bag of rice cost ¥4,268, about $30, in May 2025, nearly double its price a year earlier.
• Heat, water shortages, tourism demand and panic buying strained supplies, while slow reserve releases and reluctance to increase imports worsened the crisis.
• The new approach includes using abandoned farmland, combining small plots, supporting technology and expanding domestic sales and exports.
• Direct payments to farmers are under consideration as a way to support incomes without relying on high rice prices.
• Japan produces nearly all its own rice, but its food self-sufficiency across the diet was 38% by calories in 2023.
• Aging farmers, shrinking farmland, rising costs and climate pressures will shape how much production can grow.