Small Agencies Launch 90% of K-pop Groups, but Major Labels Keep Acts Active Twice as Long

Most groups debut outside the biggest companies

Small and midsized agencies launched 1,042 of the 1,159 K-pop idol groups that debuted between 1996 and 2025. Yet only seven of those groups released an album selling at least 1 million copies, compared with 24 of the 117 groups launched by major agencies, a study has found.

The divide extends beyond hit records. Groups from major agencies recorded an average observed activity period of 7.4 years, compared with 3.6 years for groups from smaller companies. Five years after debut, their estimated chances of remaining active were 65.2% and 28.7%, respectively.

Kim Jeong-seop, a professor in the Department of Cultural Industry and Arts at Sungshin Women's University in Seoul, examined the groups for a paper published in Volume 20, Issue 6 of the Journal of the Korea Entertainment Industry Association. The findings were announced on November 9, 2026, following publication on October 30.

His central recommendation is to redirect support toward what happens after a group first takes the stage: reaching audiences, recovering investment, financing another release and keeping artists healthy enough to continue working.

Kim described the industry's challenge as one of sustaining careers, rather than simply creating more new acts:

a question not simply of entry, but of survival and continuity.

How the study divided the industry

The study classified groups according to their agency at debut. Its major agency category covered HYBE, SM Entertainment, JYP Entertainment, YG Entertainment, CJ ENM and Kakao Entertainment, including their subsidiaries and affiliates. The classification used a sales threshold of at least 500 billion won in the preceding year, alongside industry influence.

All other agencies fell into the small and midsized category. Smaller agencies therefore accounted for 89.9% of debuts, against 10.1% for the major companies, or roughly nine groups for every one launched by a major agency.

Smaller companies supplied most groups across every gender category examined: 88.4% of boy groups, 91.6% of girl groups and 84.2% of groups with both male and female members. Their role as the main source of new acts extended across the industry.

Because the classification follows the agency at debut, the comparison tracks where groups began their careers. A group's subsequent activity and sales are measured against that starting category.

The activity gap opens in the first year

Major agency groups already had a higher estimated continuation rate after one year: 86.3%, compared with 66.5% for smaller agency groups. By year three, the figures had fallen to 77.0% and 42.2%.

At five years, fewer than three in 10 groups from smaller agencies were estimated to remain active, compared with nearly two in three from major agencies. The gap at that point was 36.5 percentage points.

The study used Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, a statistical method for estimating how long something continues before a defined event occurs. Here, the event was a group's disbandment or end of activity. The method also accounts for groups that were still active when observation ended.

For those continuing groups, activity was observed through September 2026. Their careers could continue beyond that date, so the average observed activity period is a measure of time recorded so far. Across all 1,159 groups, that average was 4.0 years.

The difference between the two agency categories was 3.8 years. For artists, that represents a substantial stretch of a career in which they could release music, perform and build an audience. For agencies, it represents more time to turn an initial investment into a continuing business.

Seven years separates the two groups further

At seven years after debut, 59.0% of major agency groups were estimated to remain active, compared with 20.1% of smaller agency groups. The gap reached 38.9 percentage points, wider than at the other reported milestones.

Seven years is a meaningful point in the industry because it is the maximum period under the standard exclusive artist contract discussed in the study. Groups approaching that point face decisions about renewing agreements and continuing their work together.

The longer horizon showed an enduring divide. At 10 years, the estimated continuation rates were 49.8% for major agency groups and 13.2% for smaller agency groups. At 15 years, they were 47.1% and 11.4%; at 20 years, 47.1% and 8.9%.

Across the full dataset, 68 groups had recorded activity lasting more than 15 years and 32 more than 20 years. The estimated rates describe activity at each career milestone, while those counts show how many groups had actually accumulated such lengthy careers during observation.

Similar numbers reach 100,000 sales, from very different starting pools

Album sales reveal how the industry's large supply of groups narrows into a much smaller pool of commercially successful acts. At the threshold of 100,000 copies for a single album, smaller agencies produced 69 qualifying groups, slightly more than the 67 from major agencies.

The starting populations were very different, however. Those 69 groups represented 6.6% of the 1,042 groups from smaller agencies. The 67 major agency groups represented 57.3% of their category's 117 groups.

In practical terms, the two categories produced almost the same number of groups reaching that sales milestone, although smaller agencies launched nearly nine times as many acts. That comparison captures both their contribution to K-pop and the difficulty of converting a debut into substantial album sales.

Higher sales thresholds made the divide more pronounced:

• At least 300,000 copies of one album: 44 major agency groups, or 37.6%, compared with 26 smaller agency groups, or 2.5%.
• At least 500,000 copies: 34 major agency groups, or 29.1%, compared with 15 smaller agency groups, or 1.4%.
• At least 1 million copies: 24 major agency groups, or 20.5%, compared with seven smaller agency groups, or 0.7%.

Using the group counts and category totals, the share reaching 1 million copies was about 30.5 times higher among major agency groups. Put simply, roughly one in five groups from major agencies reached that milestone, compared with about one in 149 from smaller agencies.

Success becomes concentrated as sales rise

Among the 31 groups that reached 1 million copies with a single album, 24 came from major agencies. That is about 77% of the qualifying groups, even though major agency acts made up just 10.1% of all debuts.

Sales accumulated across multiple releases followed a similar pattern. Ten major agency groups and three smaller agency groups reached 5 million copies in total. Six major agency groups and two smaller agency groups reached 10 million.

At 20 million cumulative copies, the counts were two groups from smaller agencies and one from a major agency. With only three groups at that level, the study treated the finding cautiously.

Kim's analysis places smaller agencies' competitive potential in specialization and differentiation: developing a distinct musical or artistic identity rather than trying to match the scale of the biggest companies. The sales figures show how few groups from that much larger pool reach the highest commercial thresholds.

Ten proposals focus on keeping careers going

Kim developed 10 proposed support measures across five areas: finance and investment; production and distribution; digital promotion and global expansion; professional staff and performance; and the industry's working environment and business capabilities.

Seven experts from agencies, journalism and research helped refine the proposals through three rounds of a Delphi survey. This method asks participants to assess proposals over several rounds so that a clearer area of agreement can emerge.

Eight of the original 18 proposals were dropped because they failed to reach consensus, including dedicated tax breaks for smaller agencies. The remaining measures covered investment linked to intellectual property, shared production resources, distribution, digital marketing, overseas showcases, specialist staff and legal, accounting and welfare services.

The highest priority was a policy fund and investment program linked to securing intellectual property rights, which scored 9.57 out of 10. Intellectual property means legal rights over creative work, such as music and recordings. The proposed support ties financing to the rights that can help generate income from that work.

Artist health, safety and welfare ranked second, at 9.14 out of 10. Its position near the top places the people performing the music alongside financing as a priority for sustaining activity.

Marketing through social media, short videos, artificial intelligence and data received 8.00 points, the lowest score among the 10 retained proposals. Overseas showcases were also proposed to help groups reach audiences and business contacts beyond South Korea.

Why funding a debut is only the beginning

Kim's proposed model follows a sequence: enter the market, grow, recover investment, reinvest and continue performing. A debut starts that process, while distribution, promotion and business support help a company keep it moving.

Shared production facilities and access to specialist workers could address needs that smaller agencies struggle to meet alone. Legal and accounting assistance would target the business work behind a group's public performances, while international distribution and performance infrastructure would support expansion abroad.

The Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism was pursuing a new tax credit for popular music production costs and a policy loan program. Kim's recommendations extend the focus beyond production expenses to the capabilities needed after music has been made.

For an agency, recovering investment means earning back money spent on developing and releasing a group. Reinvestment means putting income into the next release or stage of activity. The proposed measures seek to connect those steps so that a first release can lead to a continuing career.

The research timeline and its limits

The study brings together three decades of debuts, but follows them to a common observation endpoint. Its main dates are:

• 1996 to 2025: the debut period covered by the 1,159 groups.
• September 2026: the observation cutoff for groups still active.
• October 30, 2026: publication of the journal issue carrying the research.
• November 9, 2026: announcement of the findings.

Debut timing and gender were not controlled for in the comparison. Groups starting in different years also entered different album markets, making sales across the full period difficult to compare. More detailed analysis would need to account for those differences when examining why careers and commercial outcomes vary.

The recommendations remain proposals, with no implementation timetable given. Kim called for longer observation and evaluation of policy effects, which would allow researchers to examine whether support helps groups remain active and build sustainable businesses.

Key Points

• Small and midsized agencies launched 89.9% of the 1,159 K-pop groups studied.
• Major agency groups recorded 7.4 years of average observed activity, compared with 3.6 years for smaller agency groups.
• Estimated activity at five years was 65.2% for major agency groups and 28.7% for smaller agency groups.
• Twenty-four major agency groups and seven smaller agency groups sold at least 1 million copies of a single album.
• Ten proposed support measures target financing, distribution, international promotion, specialist services and artist welfare.
• The highest priorities were investment linked to intellectual property rights and support for artist health, safety and welfare.