A Small Upgrade Leaves a Sharp Slowdown Intact
The Philippine economy grew by 2.4% in the second quarter of 2026, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said on Friday, November 6, raising its earlier estimate of 2.3%. The revision slightly improved the picture for April through June, but left growth well below the pace recorded a year earlier and below the government's ambition for the year.
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Growth slowed from 2.8% in the first quarter and from 5.5% in the second quarter of 2025. The revised second quarter rate was still the weakest since the economy contracted by 3.8% in the first quarter of 2021 during the coronavirus pandemic. Excluding the pandemic years, it was the slowest since the 1.8% expansion recorded in the fourth quarter of 2009.
The economy expanded by 2.6% in the first half of 2026, below the government's full year growth target of 3.5% to 4.5%. The next major reading is due on Monday, November 9, when the PSA is scheduled to release figures for the third quarter, covering July through September.
The upward adjustment came mainly from stronger estimates for wholesale and retail trade, agriculture, and transportation and storage. Those changes lifted the national growth figure by 0.1 percentage point. They did little, however, to narrow the gap between the economy's current pace and its performance a year earlier.
What the Revised Growth Rate Means
Gross domestic product, or GDP, measures the value of goods and services produced within a country's borders. It brings together activity across the economy, from farming and factory production to shops, transport businesses and other services.
The revised figure means Philippine economic output in April through June was 2.4% higher than in the same period of 2025. The comparison with first quarter growth of 2.8% shows that the annual pace of expansion slowed as the year progressed.
The difference between 2.3% and 2.4% is 0.1 percentage point. By comparison, the fall from the second quarter growth rate of 5.5% in 2025 to 2.4% in 2026 was 3.1 percentage points. The slowdown from a year earlier was therefore much larger than the latest statistical adjustment.
Three Sectors Drove the Adjustment
Wholesale and retail trade, including the repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, grew by a revised 4.7%, up from the preliminary estimate of 4.6%. This category covers businesses involved in distributing and selling goods, as well as the vehicle repair activities included in its official name.
Agriculture, forestry and fishing recorded growth of 2.9%, compared with the earlier estimate of 2.7%. Transportation and storage growth was raised to 4.1% from 3.8%, the largest adjustment in percentage points among the three sectors identified by the PSA.
- Wholesale and retail trade: revised upward by 0.1 percentage point to 4.7%.
- Agriculture, forestry and fishing: revised upward by 0.2 percentage point to 2.9%.
- Transportation and storage: revised upward by 0.3 percentage point to 4.1%.
Sector growth rates cannot simply be added together to calculate GDP growth. Each sector accounts for a different share of economic output, so its effect on the national figure depends on its size as well as how quickly it grows. The PSA identified these three activities as the main contributors to the upward revision.
The Annual Target Requires a Faster Second Half
The first half growth rate of 2.6% leaves the economy needing a stronger second half to reach the government's target of 3.5% to 4.5% for 2026. The gap between the first half result and the bottom of the annual target range is 0.9 percentage point. The gap to the upper end is 1.9 percentage points.
Those gaps describe the distance between the reported pace and the government's objective. Full year GDP growth compares total output across all four quarters with total output in the previous year, so the final result depends on the size and growth of economic activity in the remaining quarters.
For households and businesses, the central message is that production was still expanding, but at a slower pace. A national GDP figure brings together many different experiences: the revised figures show trade and transportation growing faster than the economy as a whole, while agriculture grew at a rate closer to the national figure.
National Income Shows a Different Pattern
The PSA kept second quarter growth in gross national income, or GNI, unchanged at 2.2%. At the same time, it lowered growth in net primary income from the rest of the world to 0.8%, from the preliminary estimate of 1%.
GDP and GNI measure different things. GDP focuses on production within Philippine borders. GNI also takes account of primary income that residents receive from abroad and the corresponding income paid to nonresidents. Primary income includes earnings connected with work and investments.
The revised figures therefore show a small improvement in measured domestic production growth alongside a weaker estimate for growth in net primary income from overseas. The published GNI growth rate remained at 2.2% after the revisions.
Net primary income from abroad is a separate national accounting measure from the total money that overseas Filipinos send home. Its revised growth rate of 0.8% describes how that particular income balance changed compared with a year earlier.
Why the PSA Revised Its Estimates
The PSA said the changes followed an approved revision policy consistent with international standards for national accounts. National accounts are the statistical framework used to assemble measures such as GDP and GNI.
Initial GDP estimates provide an early picture of economic activity. As more complete information becomes available, statistical agencies can update the figures. In this release, the PSA raised the estimated growth of several domestic sectors and lowered the estimate for growth in net primary income from the rest of the world.
The revision changes the measured strength of the second quarter, while leaving the main sequence intact: growth of 2.8% in the first quarter was followed by growth of 2.4% in the second. The first half result remained below the government's annual target range.
November 9 Will Bring the Next Growth Reading
A poll of 16 economists and analysts produced a median forecast of 2.7% GDP growth for the third quarter. The median is the middle forecast when estimates are arranged in order, giving a central reading of the group's expectations.
A result of 2.7% would represent a modest improvement from the revised second quarter rate of 2.4%, while remaining slightly below the first quarter's 2.8%. If realized, it would put average growth across the first three quarters at around 2.6%, leaving the economy below the government's full year target range heading into the final quarter.
The third quarter result was still pending when the revision was announced. The key dates and periods are:
- January through March 2026: GDP grew by 2.8%.
- April through June 2026: GDP grew by a revised 2.4%, bringing first half growth to 2.6%.
- November 6, 2026: the PSA announced the upward revision from 2.3%.
- November 9, 2026: the PSA is scheduled to release third quarter GDP figures.
The coming release will show whether growth regained some pace after June. It will also provide a fuller measure of how much expansion the economy needs in the final quarter to approach the government's annual objective.
Key Points
- Philippine GDP growth for the second quarter of 2026 was revised to 2.4% from 2.3%.
- Growth remained below the first quarter's 2.8% and the 5.5% recorded a year earlier.
- Higher estimates for trade, agriculture, and transportation and storage drove the revision.
- First half growth of 2.6% was below the government's full year target of 3.5% to 4.5%.
- GNI growth stayed at 2.2%, while growth in net primary income from abroad was revised to 0.8%.
- Third quarter GDP figures are due November 9, with a median forecast of 2.7% growth.
