Pakistan Flour Prices Hit Records as Millers Seek Imports and Water Cuts Threaten Next Crop

Sindh faces a wheat gap as flour costs climb

Pakistan's flour millers are demanding immediate permission to import wheat privately as record flour prices, disputed government grain stocks and a 22% irrigation water shortage threaten supplies before the next harvest in March and April 2027. In Sindh, industry representative Yaser Malik estimates wheat availability at 4.84 million tonnes against demand of 6.53 million tonnes, leaving a gap of 1.69 million tonnes, about 26% of the province's needs.

Malik, former president of the Jamshoro Chamber of Commerce and Industry and chairman of the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry's Flour Mills Sub-Committee, issued the appeal on October 17, 2026. He said private imports could allow flour to reach consumers at Rs130 per kilogram, compared with industry quotations of Rs161 for No. 2.5 flour, Rs180 for chakki flour and Rs173 for maida.

September flour prices were 31.7% higher than a year earlier in urban markets and 34.3% higher in rural areas. For families buying flour regularly, those increases mean spending substantially more for the same amount of a basic food.

Malik warned that shortages could become particularly severe before the new crop arrives. His proposed response combines immediate imports, the separation of usable grain from old government stocks and a clear import policy covering the next six months.

The pressure has been building since at least July, when Punjab and Sindh sought wheat from federal reserves despite earlier estimates suggesting national supplies were close to annual requirements. By October, lower crop estimates and reduced reservoir storage had added to concerns about both current supplies and the next harvest.

What consumers are paying in Karachi

Karachi's wholesale and retail quotations show how sharply the cost can vary between the grain market, flour mills and shops. Wholesale Grocers Association leader Abdul Rauf Ibrahim put No. 2.5 flour at Rs156 per kilogram wholesale and Rs170 retail, compared with the Rs161 market quotation cited by millers.

Ibrahim quoted chakki flour at Rs190 to Rs200 per kilogram wholesale and Rs215 to Rs220 retail, above the millers' Rs180 quotation. Chakki flour is ground in stone mills and commonly sold as whole wheat flour. He put fine flour at Rs170 wholesale and Rs190 retail.

Ibrahim also said ordinary wheat cost Rs145 to Rs150 per kilogram, while clean wheat supplied to small mills cost Rs160. Those grain prices help explain the pressure on flour producers: mills must pay for wheat before covering cleaning, grinding, transport and other expenses.

The association called for action against wheat hoarders, accusing stockholders of withholding supplies while prices rose. Ibrahim also urged the government to consider farmers' production costs when setting a wheat support price, the price intended to give growers a dependable return.

Why millers rejected government wheat

Sindh Chief Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah approved the release of government wheat on October 7 at Rs12,500 per bag weighing 100 kilograms, effective October 15. That equals Rs125 per kilogram of grain. The release was intended to stabilise flour prices and improve availability.

Members of the Pakistan Flour Mills Association instead voted at a general body meeting to refuse the grain, according to Chaudhry Aamir Abdullah, a former chairman of the association's Sindh Zone. Millers said their inspection of the Landhi warehouse found that only about 15% of its 1.3 million bags was fit for consumption.

The bags represent 130,000 tonnes of wheat. Applying the millers' estimate would leave about 19,500 tonnes usable. Abdullah suspected the warehouse contained the same grain, around four years old, that mills had previously rejected; Malik described much of the stock as three to four years old.

The condition of the Landhi grain remains a claim by the millers; no independent testing results or response from Sindh Food Department officials accompanied the complaint. Both representatives asked the department to separate old or unsuitable wheat and release only grain fit for milling.

How much wheat is actually missing?

Malik put national production at 27.5 million tonnes against a target of 29.7 million tonnes, a gap of 2.2 million tonnes. Another crop estimate attributed to Pakistan's Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission, SUPARCO, placed production at 27.48 million tonnes, broadly matching that assessment.

Earlier figures painted a different picture. A July food ministry estimate put production at 29.78 million tonnes, with another 2 million tonnes carried over from the previous year, against requirements of 31.66 million tonnes. Farmers' representatives also discussed production of 29.6 million tonnes, described as 4.3% above the previous year. The reason for the difference between those production estimates and the later figure of about 27.5 million tonnes has not been publicly explained in the accounts of the crisis.

Annual consumption estimates also range from about 30 million to 31.9 million tonnes. Using the later production figure of 27.5 million tonnes, the gap between the harvest and consumption would therefore be about 2.5 million to 4.4 million tonnes, before accounting for usable stocks carried over from earlier years.

Sindh's immediate stock calculation is more specific. Malik said the province held 346,414 tonnes of government wheat. Adding 190,000 tonnes from the Pakistan Agricultural Storage and Services Corporation, or PASSCO, and 300,000 tonnes of planned imports would bring that total to 836,414 tonnes.

Malik said even that combined amount would be insufficient to bridge the months before the next harvest. Government reserves matter because authorities can release them when commercial supplies tighten, putting more grain into mills and helping restrain prices.

Warnings began months before October

Federal and provincial officials were already discussing emergency supplies in July. Punjab requested 1 million tonnes from PASSCO, while Sindh sought between 220,000 and 700,000 tonnes. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa requested about 100,000 tonnes for public supply and another 700,000 tonnes for private supply.

PASSCO then held 1.7 million tonnes. Officials warned that meeting provincial requests could exhaust federal reserves and require imports of between 500,000 and 1 million tonnes. Sindh also sought easier movement of wheat from Punjab, which cited its own supply management needs.

The main developments trace a growing gap between reassuring supply estimates and mounting market pressure:

• April 17: The Pakistan Kisan Rabita Committee held more than 100 protests across 68 districts, demanding renewed public procurement and a support price of Rs4,000 per maund.
• June 11 to July 9: Wheat rose from Rs4,188 to Rs4,423 per 40 kilograms in Punjab and from Rs4,188 to Rs4,625 in Sindh.
• July 21: Details emerged of a second federal and provincial meeting on wheat supplies, with provinces seeking releases from PASSCO.
• October 6: The Indus River System Authority approved a 22% water shortage for Punjab and Sindh during the Rabi season.
• October 15: Sindh's government wheat release took effect at Rs12,500 per bag weighing 100 kilograms.
• October 17: Malik called for immediate private imports and warned of worsening shortages in December and January.

Sindh's wheat price increase over the June to July period was about 10.4%, compared with 5.6% in Punjab. The figures show that pressure was already building well before the October dispute over warehouse stocks.

The argument over government buying

Punjab's public procurement reached 480,000 tonnes against a goal of 3 million tonnes, according to figures discussed during the July supply talks. That is 16% of the target. Sindh bought slightly more than 200,000 tonnes.

Farmers' representatives gave a much lower account of procurement under arrangements assigning purchases to 11 private companies, saying only a few thousand tonnes were bought against a target of 3 million tonnes. Their account and the July figures describe different levels of purchasing without explaining how the totals relate.

The Pakistan Kisan Rabita Committee wants PASSCO procurement restored. Farmers' representatives said growers received Rs3,500 per maund, a unit commonly equal to 40 kilograms, while the open market price later reached Rs5,000. That is an increase of about 43%, with consumers facing higher prices after farmers had sold their crop.

Economic Affairs Minister Ahad Cheema said import decisions would follow an assessment of domestic market conditions and provincial requirements, with protection of local growers a priority. A July ministry statement described markets as stable, even as provincial governments sought more wheat. Federal Food Security Minister Rana Tanveer Hussain said PASSCO was supporting provincial supplies.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa finance adviser Muzzammil Aslam offered a more urgent assessment during the July discussions. He linked weak provincial reserves to the need for imports.

Provincial reserves are at extremely low levels. Availability is a major concern and the only possible way to reduce prices is to import wheat.

Competing import plans and the Rs130 promise

The federal government approved emergency imports of 1 million tonnes, with the Trading Corporation of Pakistan handling purchases. An initial purchasing target of 750,000 tonnes was subsequently reduced to 550,000 tonnes after Punjab and Sindh revised their requirements. Another account of the government's schedule described 750,000 tonnes for first phase delivery in November.

TCP also launched a tender for 185,000 tonnes with bids due at the end of September. By October 13, purchases of 365,000 tonnes at $348.83 per tonne had been reported, with a programme covering 550,000 tonnes estimated to cost about $192 million.

Malik argued for a much larger programme of 4 million tonnes, brought in gradually, rather than reliance on the 550,000 tonne purchasing target. He wants private businesses allowed to import without duties or subsidies and without exclusive reliance on TCP.

Malik and Abdullah each put the landed cost of private imports at Rs105 per kilogram and said flour could retail at Rs130. Against the millers' No. 2.5 flour quotation of Rs161, that proposed price would be Rs31 lower, a reduction of about 19%. It is an industry estimate tied to permission to import, rather than a retail price already in place.

Malik, speaking for Sindh's flour industry, described his objection to relying on the state trading agency:

TCP's imports are slow, costly and lead to losses to the national exchequer. The private sector should be allowed to import on an open, transparent, and non-discriminatory basis.

Less water threatens the next harvest

The Indus River System Authority, chaired by Amjad Saeed, approved a 22% shortage for Punjab and Sindh for the Rabi season running from October 1, 2026, to March 31, 2027. Rabi is the winter growing season, when wheat is Pakistan's main crop. The authority said allocations could be reviewed as conditions changed.

IRSA's approved shortage was below the 26% estimates attributed to its internal calculations, Punjab and the Water and Power Development Authority, WAPDA. The distribution arrangement applies supply cuts to Punjab and Sindh while exempting Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Sindh has objected to that approach and sought allocation under paragraph 2 of the 1991 Water Accord.

Reservoir storage on September 30 stood at 9.343 million acre feet, down from 13.214 million a year earlier, a decline of about 29%. An acre foot is enough water to cover one acre of land to a depth of one foot. Storage was also below the average of 9.938 million acre feet over the previous ten years.

IRSA anticipated inflows of 21.268 million acre feet and provincial withdrawals of 29.183 million acre feet, with stored water helping cover the difference. Sindh was allocated 11.748 million acre feet and Punjab 15.564 million. Although total planned withdrawals were slightly above the recent average, they remained below the roughly 38 million acre feet envisaged under the 1991 accord.

Summer inflows had already weakened: Kharif 2026 inflows of 95.44 million acre feet were 8% below expectations, 7% below the average over ten years and 22% below the previous year. Farmers facing reduced canal supplies may need more groundwater pumping or risk lower yields, adding pressure to the harvest expected to replenish wheat stocks.

Dam delays add to the supply challenge

Construction restrictions at Tarbela reportedly prevented the storage of more than 3 million acre feet of water. IRSA urged WAPDA to finish the Tunnel 4 low level outlet and Tunnel 5 hydropower works, saying prolonged delays were causing provincial shortages during Kharif seasons.

The Tunnel 4 outlet was due in 2022 and Tunnel 5 in July 2025. Completion delays may extend into early 2028, while full Tarbela capacity could remain constrained during the 2027 and 2028 summer seasons. Restrictions at Tarbela also increased reliance on releases from Mangla, limiting the opportunity to fill that reservoir before winter.

IRSA tentatively approved a Chashma Barrage closure from December 26, 2026, to January 14, 2027, coordinated with provincial annual canal closure programmes. November wheat deliveries, winter reservoir management and the March to April harvest are therefore the next major supply milestones.

For consumers, the immediate issue is whether usable wheat reaches mills soon enough to ease prices. For growers, the next crop depends on irrigation and a purchasing policy that provides a workable return. Sindh's millers say they are ready to cooperate with governments, but warn that mills could close if they cannot obtain grain.

Key Points

• September flour prices rose 31.7% annually in urban markets and 34.3% in rural markets.
• Malik estimates Sindh's wheat gap at 1.69 million tonnes, about 26% of provincial demand.
• Millers rejected Landhi government stocks over alleged poor quality and requested separation of usable grain.
• The government approved 1 million tonnes of emergency imports; millers want 4 million tonnes imported in phases.
• Industry representatives say private imports could support flour at Rs130 per kilogram.
• Punjab and Sindh face approved irrigation shortages of 22% before the next wheat harvest in March and April 2027.