Chinese Visitors to Japan Fall 45% as Taiwan Dispute Hits Tourism and Trade

December Slump Comes Despite a Record Tourism Year

About 330,000 tourists from mainland China visited Japan in December 2025, a fall of approximately 45% from the same month a year earlier, according to Japan's transport ministry. The decline followed a diplomatic dispute over Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's suggestion that Japan could become militarily involved if China attempted to invade Taiwan.

Japan nevertheless welcomed a record 42.7 million foreign visitors during 2025, exceeding the previous record of 37 million in 2024. Those figures represent an increase of 5.7 million visitors, or about 15.4%. The annual total passed 40 million for the first time, even as arrivals from what has traditionally been Japan's largest international visitor market fell sharply at the end of the year.

Transport Minister Yasushi Kaneko pointed to arrivals from other countries and regions when discussing the December decline. He also expressed a desire for Chinese tourists to return.

While the number of Chinese tourists in December decreased, we attracted a sufficient number of people from many other countries and regions to offset that," Kaneko said. "We also hope and want to make sure that Chinese visitors will return to us as soon as possible.

Chinese visitors carry particular weight for Japanese businesses. Almost 7.5 million arrived during the first nine months of 2025, accounting for approximately one quarter of foreign visitors. In the third quarter alone, they spent a combined $3.7 billion. Each Chinese visitor spent, on average, 22% more than tourists from other countries.

Japan's record annual arrivals and December's Chinese tourism slump therefore describe different pressures: the country attracted more visitors across the year, while businesses serving Chinese customers faced a sudden loss of an especially valuable market.

The Parliamentary Answer That Triggered the Dispute

Takaichi's comments came during a parliamentary session on November 7, 2025. Asked how Japan would respond to a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the prime minister described circumstances that could bring Japan's security legislation into play.

Takaichi, a hawkish conservative known for a tough stance on China, referred to the use of warships and force when explaining the possible threat to Japan.

"If there are battleships and the use of force, no matter how you think about it, could constitute a survival-threatening situation," Takaichi told parliament.

A "survival-threatening situation" is a specific legal term under Japan's 2015 security legislation. It allows Japan to exercise collective self-defense when an armed attack on its allies poses an existential threat to the country. In simple terms, collective self-defense allows a country to use force to help defend an ally when the attack also threatens its own survival.

The answer made Japan's possible role in a Taiwan conflict more explicit than its leaders had traditionally been willing to state. Japan had generally maintained strategic ambiguity, leaving its likely military response unstated.

Only weeks earlier, Takaichi and Chinese leader Xi Jinping had met at the APEC summit in South Korea and pledged to build "constructive and stable" relations. The contrast between that meeting and her parliamentary answer intensified Beijing's anger.

China summoned Japan's ambassador and demanded that Takaichi retract her statement. She refused, and Beijing began measures affecting tourism and cultural exchanges.

How the Crisis Unfolded

The dispute developed from a security debate into a wider confrontation affecting travel, education, entertainment and trade. Its main dated developments were:

• Weeks before November 7, 2025: Takaichi and Xi met at the APEC summit in South Korea and pledged "constructive and stable" relations.
• November 7, 2025: Takaichi told parliament that a conflict involving Taiwan could constitute a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan.
• Following the remarks: China demanded a retraction, issued a warning against travel to Japan and took other measures affecting exchanges.
• December 2025: Mainland Chinese tourist arrivals in Japan fell approximately 45% from December 2024, to about 330,000.
• By January 20, 2026: Japan's annual figures showed a record 42.7 million foreign visitors in 2025, while the duration and intensity of China's measures remained uncertain.

Xue Jian, China's consul general in Osaka, further inflamed the dispute by resharing an article about Takaichi's remarks on X, formerly Twitter. His accompanying comment said "the dirty head that sticks itself in must be cut off." The post was later removed, but Japanese officials lodged formal protests.

The exchange brought the disagreement beyond the question of what Japan might do in a future conflict. Both governments also began addressing the safety of their citizens living in or visiting the other country.

Travel Warnings, Refunds and Cancelled Tickets

China's foreign ministry warned citizens against visiting Japan. An embassy statement cited "blatantly provocative remarks regarding Taiwan" and said they had "severely damaging the atmosphere for people-to-people exchanges." It also alleged "significant risks to the personal safety and lives of Chinese citizens in Japan."

Air China, China Southern Airlines and China Eastern offered full refunds for flights to Japan. Aviation analysts reported that approximately 500,000 tickets from China to Japan were cancelled after the travel advisory, affecting airlines, hotels and the wider visitor economy.

Japanese representatives rejected China's explanation for the warning in meetings with Chinese counterparts. They stated that "public order within Japan has in no way deteriorated" and urged Beijing to take "appropriate measures" to reduce tensions.

Japan also advised approximately 100,000 Japanese citizens living in China to take extra safety precautions, avoid crowded places and remain mindful of local customs. The Japanese embassy in China issued more specific guidance about where people should exercise care.

pay attention to your surroundings and avoid as much as possible squares where large crowds gather, or places that are likely to be identified as being used by many Japanese people.

The warnings placed ordinary travellers and residents in the middle of a dispute about regional security. China's advice discouraged travel to Japan, while Japan's advice focused on precautions for its nationals already in China.

Students and Films Also Feel the Strain

Chinese authorities urged students to reconsider studying in Japan, affecting an educational relationship that includes more than 100,000 Chinese students enrolled in Japanese institutions. China's Ministry of Education told students already in Japan to monitor the security situation closely.

The education warning raised concerns about exchanges that extend far beyond a holiday visit. Students spend longer periods in the country and build continuing relationships with universities and local communities, making the dispute relevant to future educational ties as well as immediate travel decisions.

Chinese releases of at least two Japanese films were postponed indefinitely: "Crayon Shin-chan the Movie: Super Hot! The Spicy Kasukabe Dancers" and "Cells at Work!" Distributors cited "sentiments of the domestic audience" as the reason for the delays.

Ticket sales for the successful Japanese animation "Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle" were also declining. Together, the postponed releases and weaker sales showed how the dispute was reaching cultural products alongside tourism and education.

Retail Shares Fall as Seafood Trade Is Suspended

Japanese tourism and retail shares fell after China's travel advisory. The parent company of the Mitsukoshi and Isetan department store chains plunged almost 12%, while cosmetics group Shiseido and other retail brands also recorded sharp declines.

Shares in the owner of Uniqlo closed more than 5% lower. Japan Airlines and ANA Holdings also fell, while Oriental Land, the operator of Tokyo Disney Resort, ended the day 5.8% lower. The losses reflected investor concern about reduced spending by Chinese visitors, including among companies with broad international business.

China also suspended imports of Japanese seafood, citing concerns about treated radioactive water from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Beijing presented the suspension as a safety measure; many observers viewed it as part of the wider retaliation against Japan.

Japanese fisheries had only recently begun recovering from earlier trade restrictions. The renewed suspension created another challenge for those businesses, extending the economic pressure beyond hotels, shops and airlines.

Why Taiwan Matters to Japan's Security

Taiwan lies about 100 kilometres from Yonaguni, Japan's westernmost island. Approximately 20,000 Japanese citizens live in Taiwan, while the Taiwan Strait is a major corridor for global trade and shipping routes important to Japan's economy, which depends on imported resources.

Taiwan has governed itself since 1949. Beijing considers it a breakaway province that must eventually be reunified with mainland China, by force if necessary. China has never renounced the use of force and has increased military pressure in recent years, including regular incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone.

An air defense identification zone is an area in which aircraft are expected to identify themselves for security monitoring. China's activity around Taiwan forms part of the pressure surrounding the island and the debate over how neighbouring countries might respond to a conflict.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 added urgency to that debate. Many in the region viewed it as a precedent for a larger power attempting to seize territory from a smaller neighbour. Questions about whether the United States would defend Taiwan under different political scenarios have also prompted regional allies to reconsider their security positions.

Japan has strengthened measures to defend its outlying islands, particularly those near Taiwan and around the uninhabited Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. Japan administers the Senkaku Islands, while China claims them and calls them the Diaoyu Islands. That disagreement remains another persistent source of tension.

The 1960 US-Japan security treaty allows American forces based in Japan to operate across East Asia. A conflict in the Taiwan Strait would therefore likely involve US forces stationed on Japanese soil, directly connecting Taiwan's security to Japan's alliance with Washington and its own security calculations.

A More Explicit Message Without a Formal Policy Change

Japan has traditionally maintained unofficial but substantial ties with Taipei while formally acknowledging China's One China policy. Strategic ambiguity allowed it to support Taiwan economically and politically without explicitly challenging Beijing's territorial claims.

Previous prime ministers, including Takaichi's mentor Shinzo Abe, carefully avoided directly stating that Japan would defend Taiwan militarily. Jeffrey J. Hall, a special lecturer at Japan's Kanda University of International Studies, said security specialists had long expected Japan to play a role in a Taiwan conflict, even while leaders avoided saying so directly.

Hall explained why leaving the response unstated had diplomatic value.

allowed China to save face, even though China's government probably already expected that Japan would take such a stance in a Taiwan conflict.

Ryo Sahashi, professor of international politics at the University of Tokyo, said Japan's fundamental position on Taiwan remained unchanged. He identified the prime minister's choice of example and language as the difference.

what distinguishes Prime Minister Takaichi is that she explicitly used Taiwan as an example and strongly hinted at the possibility of exercising collective self-defense.

Sahashi described an approach that places less weight on accommodating foreign sensitivities and changes how Japan communicates its diplomatic position.

John Lim, a research fellow at the Institute for Advanced Studies on Asia at the University of Tokyo, said this was the first major China-Japan diplomatic crisis in which Taiwan had explicitly become a central issue. Earlier disputes had generally focused on history or territorial disagreements. He described Takaichi's remarks as "preventive clarity," intended to signal Japan's red lines while trying to avoid a full confrontation.

History and Domestic Politics Shape the Response

China and Japan's relationship combines cooperation with enduring historical grievances. Japan's brutal military campaign in China during World War Two remains a sensitive issue that repeatedly surfaces during diplomatic disputes.

A Chinese defense official invoked that history during the current confrontation, warning that Japan would face "crushing defeat" if it failed to learn from the past and took reckless risks.

Takaichi, Japan's first female prime minister and a protégé of the influential late leader Shinzo Abe, has pursued a conservative agenda that includes closer relations with the United States and increased defense spending. Those positions have alarmed Beijing while appealing to parts of the Japanese electorate concerned about China's growing military capabilities.

A poll conducted after the dispute began found that 48.8% of respondents supported Japan exercising its right to self-defense if Beijing attacked Taiwan, while 44.2% opposed it. The difference was 4.6 percentage points, showing a closely divided public on that specific question.

The same poll found that 60.4% supported Takaichi's plan to increase defense spending. Support for a stronger military was therefore broader than support for exercising self-defense in response to an attack on Taiwan.

Why Beijing Reacted So Strongly

Ryu Yongwook, an assistant professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore, linked China's reaction to the political importance of Taiwan for its governing party.

reveals that Beijing cannot let go of Taiwan at all, as the political legitimacy of the Communist Party of China is so tied to the Taiwan issue.

Kei Koga, an associate professor at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, described a recurring pattern in China's response to outside statements about Taiwan.

whenever China hears statements about Taiwan from external actors in an unfavorable light, particularly concerning tensions or potential contingencies, it responds quickly and assertively, regardless of the diplomatic signals those actors intend to send.

Koga's explanation places the reaction within China's effort to set boundaries around international discussion of Taiwan's security. The dispute reflected strategic concerns as well as the public exchange of diplomatic messages.

Dylan Loh, also of Nanyang Technological University, suggested that Beijing might be testing Takaichi early in her leadership.

because she is early in her tenure and because her position is not quite stable yet, China sees itself as able to more fully test the boundaries.

That interpretation places the immediate measures within a longer contest over how the two governments will deal with each other during Takaichi's tenure.

Taiwan Urges Support for Japanese Businesses

Taiwanese officials expressed solidarity with Japan. Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung called on Taiwanese citizens to travel more to Japan and buy more Japanese products, seeking to support the neighbouring country as Chinese engagement declined.

Speaking during a legislative session, Lin portrayed China's actions as part of a wider pattern of pressure.

"The Chinese Communist Party has repeatedly deployed economic and military coercion to bully other countries," Lin said.

Lin described the behaviour as "uncivilized and undemocratic" and pledged Taiwan's support for Japan at a "critical time." His comments focused on the use of trade, investment and tourism as tools of pressure.

Japan and Taiwan's strong cultural and economic connections, built through decades of exchange, provide a foundation for cooperation. Taiwan is both the central point of contention in the dispute and a potential partner for Japan as Beijing and Tokyo compete for influence.

The United States, Japan's principal security ally, has maintained its own strategic ambiguity over Taiwan while strengthening defense cooperation with Japan and Taiwan. The European Union and other Western democracies have expressed concern about peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, viewing the existing situation as essential to global economic security.

Diplomatic Contact Continues Alongside Economic Pressure

Neither China nor Japan appears to be seeking a complete breakdown in relations. Both economies face domestic pressures, and changes in global supply chains make continued economic cooperation beneficial to both sides.

Japan has pursued a "dual-track communication" approach, sending senior security officials to Beijing while maintaining firm positions on core security issues. The aim is to reassure China that Japan is not seeking a fundamental change to the existing situation while continuing to state its security interests and red lines.

Lim, the University of Tokyo research fellow, placed the dispute within the repeated movement between cooperation and confrontation in the relationship.

the pendulum of China-Japan relations is always swinging between reconciliation and conflict

He also pointed to the eventual restoration of communication after previous low points.

history shows that even at the lowest point, dialogue is always restored.

The duration and intensity of China's measures were still uncertain as of January 20, 2026. Hall, the Kanda University lecturer, described Beijing's pressure as a calculated way to signal displeasure.

"this will likely go on until the Chinese government believes it has sufficiently punished Japan," Hall said.

That assessment suggests Beijing may keep its response within limits that protect its own economic interests and wider regional stability. For Japan's tourism businesses, the immediate task is to attract visitors from more markets while preserving relationships for the return of Chinese customers.

The record 42.7 million arrivals show Japan's progress in attracting visitors beyond China, potentially reducing exposure to disruption in any single market. Chinese visitors' spending levels explain why their return still matters even when national arrival totals remain strong.

Japan also faces a wider choice about balancing security cooperation with the United States and economic engagement with China as Beijing modernises its military and expands its regional influence. Takaichi's willingness to state security red lines more explicitly, despite economic costs, may indicate a longer change in Japan's diplomatic approach.

The Bottom Line

• Mainland Chinese tourist arrivals in Japan fell approximately 45% in December 2025, to about 330,000.
• Japan welcomed a record 42.7 million foreign visitors in 2025, compared with 37 million in 2024.
• Chinese visitors accounted for approximately one quarter of foreign arrivals in the first nine months of 2025 and spent $3.7 billion in the third quarter.
• The dispute followed Takaichi's November 7 remarks about a Taiwan conflict potentially threatening Japan's survival.
• China issued travel and student warnings, airlines offered refunds, Japanese film releases were postponed and seafood imports were suspended.
• Japanese retail, airline and tourism shares fell, while both governments issued safety advice to their citizens.
• Taiwan encouraged travel to Japan and purchases of Japanese products in support of its neighbour.
• Japan maintained that its fundamental Taiwan position was unchanged, while diplomatic contact continued alongside economic pressure.