Taiwan Holds Firm After China's Blockade Drills as Lai Pushes $40 Billion Defense Plan

Lai Answers Military Pressure With a Pledge to Defend Taiwan

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te pledged to defend the island's sovereignty in his New Year's address on January 1, 2026, days after China began military exercises that rehearsed a blockade, precision strikes and the interception of outside support. The drills, called Justice Mission 2025, involved dozens of rockets, a large deployment of warships and aircraft, and operations closer to Taiwan's shores than previous exercises.

China began the exercises on December 29 and concluded them late on December 31. Described as its largest exercises around Taiwan, they covered the broadest area and came closest to the island's coast of any such operation by the People's Liberation Army (PLA). Taiwan placed its military on high alert, scrambled fighter jets and deployed naval vessels to monitor Chinese movements.

Lai spoke live from the presidential office in Taipei on Thursday, addressing both the international community and Beijing. He said Taiwan would not be intimidated, urged the country to prepare for the worst while hoping for the best, and called for stronger national defense.

Lai, Taiwan's president, set out his position in the address:

As president, my stance has always been clear: to resolutely defend national sovereignty and strengthen national defense,

The confrontation also reached into daily life. Dozens of domestic flights were cancelled, and disruption to commercial aviation affected more than 100,000 passengers. Chinese forces rehearsed operations around Keelung in the north and Kaohsiung in the south, Taiwan's largest container port, showing how military pressure could interrupt the island's connections with the outside world.

Lai used the moment to press opposition parties to support approximately $40 billion in additional defense spending. That proposal remains stalled in a parliament controlled by the opposition, turning the response to China's military pressure into a domestic political contest as well.

Three Dates That Shaped the Confrontation

Justice Mission 2025 brought naval, air and rocket forces together in a rehearsal for sealing off Taiwan and striking selected targets. The sequence placed Lai's annual address immediately after several days of military pressure.

• December 29, 2025: China began Justice Mission 2025, conducting exercises around Taiwan that included simulated blockade operations and precision strikes.
• December 31, 2025: The exercises concluded late on Wednesday. Chinese President Xi Jinping also used his New Year's address to repeat that reunification was inevitable.
• January 1, 2026: Lai delivered his New Year's address from Taipei, pledging to defend sovereignty and urging support for stronger defense capabilities.

The drills followed a record $11.1 billion United States arms package for Taiwan announced earlier in December. They also came amid friction over Japanese statements concerning possible intervention in a conflict involving Taiwan. Beijing presented its actions as a warning to Taiwan's government and to foreign powers supporting the island.

The scale and location of the exercises gave that warning a practical form. Forces operated around Taiwan rather than in a single area, rehearsing how to close ports, disrupt access and challenge assistance arriving from abroad.

Why Keelung and Kaohsiung Were Central

Chinese forces concentrated their blockade rehearsals in the northern and southwestern parts of the Taiwan Strait. Keelung and Kaohsiung were key targets because ports connect Taiwan to international shipping and the movement of goods.

A blockade means using military force to stop vessels or aircraft from entering or leaving an area. In these exercises, China practised cutting Taiwan's maritime lifelines and preventing outside support from reaching the island. Precision strikes, another part of the drills, involve attacks directed at specific targets rather than broad areas.

Kaohsiung's position as Taiwan's largest container port makes disruption there especially consequential. The rehearsals showed how pressure on a small number of important transport points could isolate Taiwan without beginning with a landing on its shores.

The cancellation of dozens of domestic flights and the disruption affecting more than 100,000 passengers offered a limited example of how military operations can spill into civilian activity. A full blockade would extend that disruption to the movement of goods and Taiwan's wider economic connections.

China also rehearsed intercepting external assistance. That element connected the operations around Taiwan's ports to a broader military goal: making it harder for other countries to help the island during a conflict.

Chinese Vessels Entered a Sensitive Coastal Buffer

PLA Navy and China Coast Guard vessels entered Taiwan's contiguous zone in substantial numbers during the exercises. The zone extends to 24 nautical miles from the coast, covering a buffer of 12 nautical miles beyond territorial waters.

A contiguous zone gives a coastal government space to enforce customs, fiscal, immigration and sanitary laws. It serves a different legal purpose from territorial waters, while remaining a sensitive area for encounters between opposing forces.

Earlier exercises often operated around the edges of Taiwan's territorial waters. The presence of Chinese vessels within the contiguous zone brought military activity into a buffer that Taiwan considers important to its security.

One Chinese destroyer reportedly withdrew only after a Taiwanese naval vessel applied a radar lock. A radar lock tracks a target closely and can signal preparation to fire, making such an encounter more dangerous than routine monitoring.

Repeated Chinese operations in this space can make a close military presence more routine. They also leave opposing crews with less room and time to respond, increasing the risk that an encounter intended as pressure develops into a confrontation.

The concern is both immediate and cumulative. Each encounter carries a risk of miscalculation, while repeated operations can erode the practical significance of the coastal buffer and make the boundary between coercion and combat harder to manage.

Beijing Frames the Drills as Punishment

China's Foreign Ministry and the PLA Eastern Theater Command described the exercises as necessary to protect national sovereignty and unity. They condemned what they called "separatist forces" in Taiwan and warned against "external interference."

Beijing explicitly presented the drills as punishment for what it sees as Taiwan's cooperation with foreign powers to undermine Chinese territorial integrity. China considers Taiwan a renegade province that must eventually be reunited with the mainland and has kept open the option of using force.

China's Taiwan Affairs Office responded sharply to Lai's New Year's speech. A spokesperson accused him of deceit and described the address in these terms:

riddled with lies and reckless assertions, hostility and malice.

Beijing has previously labelled Lai a "troublemaker" and a "separatist." Those descriptions reflect the deep distrust between China's government and Taiwan's elected president, whose address combined a commitment to sovereignty with an appeal for greater military preparedness.

Xi Jinping repeated in his own New Year's address that reunification was inevitable and that no one could stop China from achieving it. His message reinforced Beijing's presentation of the drills as a legitimate use of state power in pursuit of national unity.

A Warning Directed at Washington and Its Allies

China's warning about deterring outside intervention was aimed particularly at Washington and its allies. The drills rehearsed resistance to foreign assistance as well as pressure on Taiwan itself.

This approach fits Beijing's strategy of "anti-access and area denial." In simple terms, it means trying to prevent an opposing force from reaching a conflict area or operating effectively once there. Keeping United States aircraft carrier groups at a distance is part of that objective.

China's Foreign Ministry also warned that efforts to obstruct reunification were doomed to fail. It accused outside forces of using Taiwan to contain China and pushing the region toward danger.

Japan's recent statements about possible intervention in a Taiwan contingency added to Beijing's anger. A contingency, in this context, means a possible emergency or conflict involving Taiwan. The statements placed another major regional power within the argument over how other countries might respond.

The European Commission and Britain expressed concern over the exercises. Their reactions, alongside those of the United States and Japan, showed how events in the strait reach beyond the governments in Beijing and Taipei.

Lai Seeks $40 Billion as Parliament Holds Back

Lai's proposal to increase defense spending by approximately $40 billion faces a political deadlock in Taiwan's opposition controlled parliament. It has been stalled alongside other legislative priorities.

The president urged opposition parties to support the plan, arguing that Taiwan's security environment was deteriorating rapidly. He said China had used Taiwan's newly added combat capabilities as a "hypothetical adversary" during the exercises.

Lai presented that targeting as evidence that Taiwan needs further military purchases and modernization. His argument was that Chinese planning already takes account of the island's improving capabilities, making continued investment necessary.

The legislative dispute affects how quickly Taiwan can respond to China's expanding military strength. Beijing is accelerating its military modernization while Taipei must secure parliamentary agreement for the proposed increase.

The two large financial figures in the confrontation concern different decisions. The approximately $40 billion proposal is Lai's plan for additional defense spending; the $11.1 billion figure concerns the United States arms package announced in December. Both are part of Taiwan's effort to strengthen its defenses, but they sit within different political and procurement processes.

Taiwan Shows Weapons Intended to Raise the Cost of Attack

Taiwan's military answered the exercises by sending fighter jets and naval assets to monitor Chinese forces. Its Ministry of National Defense also released videos displaying weapons systems, including United States made High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS).

The systems shown have a range capable of reaching coastal targets in China. Their display was intended to signal that Taiwan could inflict substantial damage on an attacking force despite being much smaller than its opponent.

Lai's defense argument rests on raising the cost of aggression so that an attack becomes less attractive. This approach is often called the "porcupine doctrine": building defenses that make the island difficult and costly to attack.

Taiwan is also investing in asymmetric warfare capabilities. Asymmetric warfare means using strengths that challenge a larger opponent's weaknesses instead of trying to match every ship, aircraft or other weapon it possesses.

The military response and the weapons videos therefore served related purposes. Taiwan monitored the immediate exercises while demonstrating capabilities intended to discourage a future attack. Lai linked that deterrent role to his request for greater defense spending.

The United States Arms Package and Its Uncertain Military Commitment

The United States remains Taiwan's most important international partner and arms supplier despite having no formal diplomatic relations with Taipei. Its $11.1 billion package announced in December, including advanced weaponry and maintenance support, was the largest of its kind and drew immediate condemnation from Beijing.

A United States State Department spokesperson responded to the Chinese exercises by urging restraint and calling on Beijing to stop military pressure against Taiwan. The spokesperson described the effect of the activities:

increase tensions unnecessarily

United States support for Taiwan has become more explicit under recent administrations. Washington still maintains "strategic ambiguity," meaning it leaves uncertainty about whether it would intervene militarily in a conflict over the island.

President Biden previously said that the United States would defend Taiwan, then moderated those comments to bring them into line with the Taiwan Relations Act. The combination of arms supplies and uncertainty over direct intervention remains central to the security relationship.

Advanced weapons and the network of international partnerships mean a conflict over Taiwan would likely involve major powers. Stability in the strait therefore matters beyond the immediate dispute, particularly as Beijing rehearses ways to prevent outside forces from assisting the island.

Why Taiwan and China Remain Apart

The division dates to the Chinese Civil War. In 1949, the Communist Party won on the mainland, and the defeated Nationalist government led by Chiang Kai-shek retreated to Taiwan.

The government established on Taiwan claimed to be the legitimate ruler of all China. For decades, both sides claimed to be China's sole representative. A distinct Taiwanese identity subsequently grew on the island.

Taiwan today is a democracy with its own constitution, military and elected leaders. Public opinion polls consistently show that residents identify primarily as Taiwanese rather than Chinese and support keeping the status quo of de facto independence, meaning Taiwan governs itself without making a formal declaration that could trigger war.

The vast majority of Taiwanese people reject unification under Beijing's proposed "one country, two systems" model, particularly after the crackdown on civil liberties in Hong Kong. That rejection helps explain the political distance between Beijing's demand for reunification and Taiwan's public preference.

Most countries formally recognize the People's Republic of China and have no official diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Many nevertheless maintain substantial unofficial economic and cultural ties with the island.

The United States' "One China policy" acknowledges Beijing's claim that Taiwan is part of China without accepting that claim as its own position. This diplomatic balance has helped preserve peace for decades, but it faces growing strain as China's military power increases and its patience with the status quo declines.

What the 2027 Readiness Target Means

A United States report suggested China could be positioning itself to win a conflict over Taiwan by 2027. Lai acknowledged that timeline as a pressing concern and described the coming years as "crucial" for Taiwan's survival.

Lai also addressed whether China would meet its timetable:

Whether China can achieve its goals on schedule is one thing.

CIA Director William Burns has said intelligence indicates that Xi instructed China's military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. That year marks the PLA's centenary and is viewed as a symbolic target for military modernization.

The meaning of the target is disputed: it may describe readiness to conduct an invasion rather than a deadline to launch one. Whether Beijing will decide to attack, and when, remains unknown.

An invasion would be exceptionally difficult and costly because Taiwan is an island with natural defenses and because the United States might become involved. Another concern is that China's growing military strength relative to the United States, combined with domestic economic challenges, could increase the temptation to use force.

China meanwhile continues "gray zone" tactics, including regular incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone and large military exercises. These are forms of pressure short of open warfare, used to wear down Taiwan's defenses and make Chinese military activity around the island more routine.

Taiwan is responding through investment in asymmetric capabilities and closer ties with democratic partners. Justice Mission 2025 brought the prospect of conflict closer to reality by rehearsing the isolation of the island, while Lai's address committed his government to resisting that pressure and strengthening its defenses.

Key Points

• China conducted Justice Mission 2025 from December 29 to late December 31, 2025, rehearsing a blockade, precision strikes and interception of outside assistance.
• The drills involved dozens of rockets, warships and aircraft, covered the broadest area of such exercises and came closest to Taiwan's shores.
• Operations focused on Keelung and Kaohsiung, while flight disruption affected more than 100,000 passengers.
• Chinese vessels entered Taiwan's contiguous zone, which extends to 24 nautical miles from the coast.
• Lai pledged to defend sovereignty on January 1 and urged parliamentary support for approximately $40 billion in additional defense spending.
• The exercises followed a record $11.1 billion United States arms package and friction over Japanese statements about possible intervention.
• Beijing condemned Lai's address, and Xi repeated that reunification was inevitable.
• China's 2027 military readiness target is central to Taiwan's planning, while a decision or date for an invasion remains unknown.